Macro Event Reactions
For each major print, we measure how VOO actually moved over the next 5 trading days across every past release — so 'the market hates inflation' becomes a number, not a vibe. An up-rate near 50% means no tradeable direction; far from 50% is a measured lean.
Measured reaction by event
| Event | Releases (n) | VOO up-rate (5d) | Avg 5d move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (inflation) | 1 | 100% n too small | +4.01% |
| Core PCE (Fed's gauge) | 8 | 62% up-lean | +0.30% |
| PPI (producer prices) | 10 | 40% down-lean | -0.15% |
| Jobs / Nonfarm Payrolls | 12 | 67% up-lean | +1.20% |
| Unemployment rate | 11 | 64% up-lean | +1.14% |
This is why we don't pre-position into a coin-flip print: most reactions cluster near 50/50. We let the measured history — not a narrative — set any lean. See methodology.