Prediction Track Record

Every signal is a logged prediction with a verdict checked on its own horizon. A signal earns influence only once it predicts over a real sample — so we tier them, and lead with what actually works. Small n means small n.

11 validated 56% hit-rate · n=2,633 pooled 44% incl. retired+small-n

Validated — proven forward edge

Hit-rate ≥ 52% over ≥ 30 graded predictions. These earn influence.

SignalHit rateResolved (n)Correct
Quality Value Medium64% 8152
Online Growth Fade62% 4226
Pe Sector Reversion Long59% 776460
Feature Analyst Sentiment Fundamental Reality Gap58% 3621
Online Performance Fade58% 8851
Feature Valuation Credibility Decay Composite58% 3319
Feature Valuation Sustainability Gap57% 3520
Online Growth Fade54% 14277
Pe Sector Reversion Long54% 1018546
Online Yield Follow53% 5127
Earnings Catalyst52% 331173

Under test — no verdict yet

Too few graded predictions (n < 30), or a coin-flip with no edge either way. Not trusted until they prove out.

SignalHit rateResolved (n)Correct
Pe Sector Reversion Short52% 1287663
Quality Value Medium52% 860445
Garp Long49% 497244
Analyst Consensus Extreme50% 19699
Confluence51% 14674
Short Squeeze49% 12260
Confluence49% 9044
Earnings Catalyst49% 8341
Online Comparison Fade51% 7840
Insider Analyst Divergence48% 5828
Feature Cash Ratio Total Assets46% 2210
Llm Synthesis 7D48% 2110
Online Erosion Fade33% 217
Mined Momentum 10D31% 165
Mined Ps Ratio56% 169
Feature Valuation Stress To Earnings Ratio44% 167
Feature Valuation Stress To Earnings Growth Multiplier44% 167
Feature Valuation Growth Quality Reality Compression31% 165
Mined Llm Derived Volatility 20D Product Momentum 5D19% 163
Feature Valuation Sustainability Gap62% 1610
Feature Valuation Credibility Decay Composite62% 1610
Feature Analyst Sentiment Fundamental Reality Gap62% 1610
Mined Pb Ratio47% 157
Feature Valuation To Growth Credibility Mismatch33% 155
Online Yield Follow73% 1511
Mined Rd Intensity Pct43% 146
Feature Ps Ratio Diff Debt To Equity57% 148
Mined Volatility 20D31% 134
Mined Llm Derived Volatility 20D Product Momentum 5D0% 130
Mined Price Vs Sma2042% 125
Mined Llm Derived Ps Ratio Diff Debt To Equity67% 128
Mined Momentum 20D36% 114
Feature Pe Ratio Product Gross Margin Pct46% 115
Mined Fcf Margin Pct46% 115
Short Squeeze64% 117
Mined Sbc Intensity Pct50% 105
Mined Ps Ratio40% 104
Mined Pb Ratio40% 104
Mined Momentum 10D11% 91
Mined Sbc Intensity Pct33% 93
Dividend Growth Long62% 85
Mined Llm Derived Total Liabilities Ratio Shares Outstanding50% 84
Mined Llm Derived Cash Ratio Total Assets50% 84
Mined Llm Derived Cash Ratio Total Assets50% 84
Feature Valuation Stress To Earnings Ratio50% 84
Feature Valuation Stress To Earnings Growth Multiplier50% 84
Feature Valuation Growth Quality Reality Compression50% 84
Feature Ps Ratio Diff Debt To Equity38% 83
Feature Pe Ratio Product Gross Margin Pct50% 84
Feature Growth Valuation Quality Mismatch50% 84
Feature Earnings Yield Pct Product Revenue Growth Pct50% 84
Mined Fcf Margin Pct50% 84
Mined Pe Ratio71% 75
Feature Insider Capitulation To Eps Sentiment Reality Score14% 71
Mined Volatility 20D29% 72
Feature Ps Ratio Diff Roe Pct43% 73
Mined Llm Derived Ps Ratio Diff Roe Pct57% 74
Mined Revenue Growth Pct33% 62
Mined Llm Derived Eps Product Total Assets83% 65
Feature Analyst Reality Collapse Severity Index67% 64
Mined Llm Derived Total Liabilities Ratio Shares Outstanding50% 63
Feature Roe Pct Diff Revenue Growth Pct33% 62
Feature Margin Sustainability Confidence Gap33% 62
Mined Llm Derived Ps Ratio Diff Roe Pct50% 63
Mined Llm Derived Ps Ratio Diff Debt To Equity83% 65
Combo Gross Margin Pct Diff Debt To40% 52
Combo Pe Ratio Product Gross Margin40% 52
Combo Gross Margin Pct Ratio Earning40% 52
Combo Roe Pct Diff Revenue Growth Pc60% 53
Combo Ps Ratio Diff Debt To Equity40% 52
Combo Roe Pct Diff Gross Margin Pct60% 53
Combo Earnings Yield Pct Product Rev40% 52
Combo Total Assets Diff Operating In60% 53
Combo Pe Ratio Diff Total Assets40% 52
Combo Total Assets Diff Net Income60% 53
Combo Total Assets Diff Shares Outst60% 53
Combo Stockholders Equity Diff Eps E60% 53
Combo Eps Diff Total Assets40% 52
Combo Total Assets Diff Long Term De60% 53
Combo Total Assets Diff Ps Ratio60% 53
Combo Total Assets Diff Earnings Yie60% 53
Combo Total Assets Diff Revenue Grow60% 53
Combo Momentum 5D Product Total Liab40% 52
Combo Total Assets Product Momentum40% 52
Combo Volatility 20D Product Momentu40% 52
Combo Pe Ratio Product Momentum 5D40% 52
Combo Eps Diff Momentum 5D60% 53
Combo Earnings Yield Pct Diff Moment60% 53
Combo Earnings Yield Pct Product Mom40% 52
Combo Momentum 5D Ratio Shares Outst40% 52
Combo Momentum 5D Ratio Total Liabil40% 52
Combo Momentum 5D Ratio Long Term De40% 52
Combo Momentum 5D Product Shares Out40% 52
Combo Momentum 5D Product Roe Pct40% 52
Mined Llm Derived Stockholders Equity Diff Net Income40% 52
Feature Analyst Credibility Anchor60% 53
Mined Price Vs Sma2040% 52
Feature Growth Quality Margin Cliff Risk40% 52
Mined Llm Derived Total Assets Ratio Shares Outstanding40% 52
Mined Pe Ratio60% 53
Mined Gross Margin Pct25% 41
Mined Earnings Yield Pct50% 42
Combo Cash Product Momentum 5D25% 41
Combo Gross Margin Pct Diff Debt To50% 42
Combo Pe Ratio Product Gross Margin50% 42
Combo Gross Margin Pct Ratio Earning50% 42
Combo Roe Pct Diff Revenue Growth Pc50% 42
Combo Ps Ratio Diff Debt To Equity50% 42
Combo Roe Pct Diff Gross Margin Pct50% 42
Combo Earnings Yield Pct Product Rev50% 42
Combo Pe Ratio Diff Total Assets50% 42
Combo Total Assets Diff Ps Ratio50% 42
Combo Total Assets Diff Earnings Yie50% 42
Combo Total Assets Diff Revenue Grow50% 42
Combo Momentum 5D Product Roe Pct50% 42
Combo Volatility 20D Product Momentu50% 42
Combo Earnings Yield Pct Diff Moment50% 42
Combo Earnings Yield Pct Product Mom50% 42
Combo Pe Ratio Product Momentum 5D50% 42
Combo Momentum 5D Ratio Total Liabil50% 42
Combo Momentum 5D Ratio Shares Outst50% 42
Combo Momentum 5D Ratio Long Term De50% 42
Combo Total Assets Ratio Shares Outs50% 42
Combo Total Liabilities Ratio Shares50% 42
Combo Cash Ratio Total Assets50% 42
Combo Llm Derived Cash Ratio Total A50% 42
Combo Llm Derived Total Assets Diff50% 42
Combo Llm Derived Eps Diff Total Ass50% 42
Combo Llm Derived Eps Product Net In50% 42
Combo Llm Derived Eps Diff Revenue R50% 42
Mined Llm Derived Stockholders Equity Diff Net Income25% 41
Mined Llm Derived Eps Product Total Assets75% 43
Feature Analyst Reality Collapse Severity Index50% 42
Feature Insider Capitulation To Eps Sentiment Reality Score0% 40
Mined Days To Cover75% 43
Mined Momentum 20D50% 42
Feature Valuation Sentiment Quality Disconnect Score25% 41
Feature Ps Ratio Diff Roe Pct50% 42
Mined Llm Derived Valuation To Growth Credibility Mismatch25% 41
Feature Gross Margin Pct Ratio Earnings Yield Pct25% 41
Mined Llm Derived Valuation To Growth Credibility Mismatch50% 42
Feature Growth Sustainability Margin Cliff Composite50% 42
Feature Gross Margin Pct Ratio Earnings Yield Pct25% 41
Feature Growth Quality Margin Cliff Risk50% 42
Feature Volatility 20D Product Momentum 5D75% 43
Feature Roe Pct Diff Gross Margin Pct50% 42
Feature Valuation Sentiment Quality Disconnect Score0% 40
Feature Valuation Quality Compression Ratio100% 44
Feature Margin Sustainability Confidence Gap50% 42
Feature Growth Valuation Quality Mismatch50% 42
Feature Earnings Yield Pct Product Revenue Growth Pct50% 42
Feature Roe Pct Diff Revenue Growth Pct0% 40
Feature Valuation Quality Compression Ratio100% 44
Feature Revenue Growth Pct Ratio Debt To Equity25% 41
Feature Revenue Growth Pct Diff Debt To Equity0% 40
Macro Event Volatility100% 33
Combo Cash Diff Total Assets33% 31
Combo Eps Product Total Assets67% 32
Combo Stockholders Equity Diff Total33% 31
Combo Eps Product Total Liabilities67% 32
Combo Total Assets Ratio Shares Outs67% 32
Mined Llm Derived Eps Product Total Liabilities67% 32
Mined Llm Derived Stockholders Equity Diff Total Assets67% 32
Mined Llm Derived Eps Diff Revenue67% 32
Feature Analyst Credibility Anchor33% 31
Mined Analyst Consensus Bullish Pct0% 30
Feature Roe Pct Diff Gross Margin Pct33% 31
Mined Llm Derived Valuation Stress To Earnings Ratio33% 31
Mined Llm Derived Valuation Growth Quality Reality Compression67% 32
Mined Llm Derived Total Assets Ratio Shares Outstanding0% 30
Mined Llm Derived Valuation Stress To Earnings Ratio33% 31
Mined Llm Derived Valuation Growth Quality Reality Compression0% 30
Feature Revenue Growth Pct Ratio Debt To Equity33% 31
Feature Revenue Growth Pct Diff Debt To Equity0% 30
Mined Accruals Ratio33% 31
Mined Accruals Ratio0% 30
Mined Momentum 60D33% 31
Mined Momentum 60D33% 31
Combo Total Liabilities Ratio Shares50% 21
Combo Eps Product Net Income50% 21
Combo Eps Diff Revenue50% 21
Combo Cash Ratio Total Assets50% 21
Combo Eps Diff Stockholders Equity50% 21
Combo Stockholders Equity Diff Net I50% 21
Combo Stockholders Equity Diff Eps E50% 21
Combo Total Assets Product Momentum50% 21
Combo Momentum 5D Product Total Liab50% 21
Combo Eps Diff Momentum 5D50% 21
Combo Momentum 5D Product Shares Out50% 21
Combo Cash Product Momentum 5D50% 21
Combo Eps Product Total Liabilities50% 21
Combo Total Assets Diff Long Term De50% 21
Combo Total Assets Diff Shares Outst50% 21
Combo Total Assets Diff Operating In50% 21
Combo Cash Diff Total Assets50% 21
Combo Eps Product Total Assets50% 21
Combo Total Assets Diff Net Income50% 21
Combo Eps Diff Total Assets50% 21
Combo Stockholders Equity Diff Total50% 21
Combo Eps Product Net Income50% 21
Combo Eps Diff Revenue50% 21
Combo Eps Diff Stockholders Equity50% 21
Combo Stockholders Equity Diff Net I50% 21
Combo Llm Derived Eps Diff Stockhold50% 21
Combo Llm Derived Stockholders Equit50% 21
Combo Llm Derived Eps Diff Revenue D50% 21
Mined Llm Derived Insider Analyst Credibility Collapse Ratio0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Credibility Collapse Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Sentiment To Fundamentals Reality Score0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Sentiment Reality Earnings Disconnect Severity0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Sentiment Reality Disconnect0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Sentiment Reality Credibility Gap0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Sentiment Earnings Reality Credibility Composite0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Sentiment Vs Fundamental Credibility Divergence0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Sentiment Reality Credibility Collapse Ratio0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Reality Credibility Gap0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Reality Credibility Compression Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Reality Collapse Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Credibility Reality Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Credibility Decay Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Conviction Sustainability Tax0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Conviction Reality Credibility Erosion Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Conviction Reality Collapse Signal0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Conviction Fade Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Eps Product Total Liabilities50% 21
Mined Llm Derived Stockholders Equity Diff Total Assets100% 22
Mined Llm Derived Eps Diff Stockholders Equity50% 21
Mined Llm Derived Eps Product Net Income0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Eps Diff Revenue50% 21
Combo Llm Derived Eps Diff Total Ass100% 22
Combo Llm Derived Total Assets Diff100% 22
Combo Llm Derived Stockholders Equit0% 20
Combo Llm Derived Eps Product Net In100% 22
Combo Llm Derived Eps Diff Revenue D0% 20
Combo Llm Derived Eps Diff Stockhold0% 20
Combo Llm Derived Cash Ratio Total A0% 20
Combo Llm Derived Eps Diff Revenue R0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Eps Diff Stockholders Equity100% 22
Mined Llm Derived Eps Product Net Income0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Insider Analyst Credibility Collapse Ratio0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Credibility Collapse Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Sentiment To Fundamentals Reality Score0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Sentiment Reality Earnings Disconnect Severity0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Sentiment Reality Disconnect0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Sentiment Reality Credibility Gap0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Sentiment Earnings Reality Credibility Composite0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Sentiment Vs Fundamental Credibility Divergence0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Sentiment Reality Credibility Collapse Ratio0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Reality Credibility Gap0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Reality Credibility Compression Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Reality Collapse Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Credibility Reality Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Credibility Decay Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Conviction Sustainability Tax0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Conviction Reality Credibility Erosion Index0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Conviction Reality Collapse Signal0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Conviction Fade Index0% 20
Combo Momentum 10D Diff Momentum 5D50% 21
Combo Momentum 5D Diff Price Vs Sma250% 21
Combo Momentum 10D Diff Volatility 250% 21
Combo Momentum 20D Diff Volatility 250% 21
Combo Momentum 5D Diff Volatility 2050% 21
Mined Llm Derived Total Assets Diff Shares Outstanding0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Total Assets Diff Long Term Debt0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Total Assets Diff Shares Outstanding0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Total Assets Diff Long Term Debt0% 20
Feature Growth Sustainability Margin Cliff Composite0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Valuation Sentiment Quality Disconnect Score0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Valuation Stress To Earnings Growth Multiplier50% 21
Mined Llm Derived Pe Ratio Product Gross Margin Pct50% 21
Mined Net Margin Pct0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Valuation Sentiment Quality Disconnect Score0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Valuation Stress To Earnings Growth Multiplier0% 20
Mined Debt To Equity0% 20
Mined Llm Derived Roe Pct Diff Revenue Growth Pct50% 21
Mined Debt To Equity50% 21
Mined Net Margin Pct50% 21
Macro Pce Cool100% 11
Live Trade Macro Pce100% 11
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Credibility Anchor0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Sentiment Vs Fundamentals Disconnect100% 11
Combo Price Vs Sma20 Diff Volatility0% 10
Combo Momentum 5D Ratio Price Vs Sma100% 11
Mined Momentum 5D0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Eps Diff Total Assets0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Total Assets Diff Net Income0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Total Assets Diff Operating Income0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Cash Diff Total Assets0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Total Assets Diff Operating Income0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Eps Diff Total Assets0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Total Assets Diff Net Income0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Cash Diff Total Assets0% 10
Combo Momentum 10D Diff Momentum 5D0% 10
Combo Momentum 5D Diff Price Vs Sma2100% 11
Combo Momentum 10D Diff Volatility 20% 10
Combo Momentum 20D Diff Volatility 20% 10
Combo Momentum 5D Diff Volatility 200% 10
Combo Momentum 20D Ratio Price Vs Sm0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Sentiment Vs Fundamentals Disconnect100% 11
Combo Price Vs Sma20 Diff Volatility100% 11
Combo Momentum 5D Ratio Price Vs Sma0% 10
Combo Momentum 20D Ratio Price Vs Sm100% 11
Macro Inflation Cool100% 11
Mined Llm Derived Analyst Credibility Anchor100% 11
Macro Inflation Cool100% 11
Feature Volatility 20D Product Momentum 5D100% 11
Mined Derived Yield100% 11
Mined Roe Pct100% 11
Mined Llm Derived Valuation Sustainability Gap0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Valuation Credibility Decay Composite0% 10
Mined Llm Derived Pe Ratio Product Gross Margin Pct100% 11
Mined Llm Derived Roe Pct Diff Revenue Growth Pct100% 11
Mined Revenue Growth Pct0% 10
Insider Analyst Divergence0% 10

Retired — anti-predictive

Hit-rate ≤ 48% over a real sample. We do not let these drive predictions; where the signal is reliably wrong, the engine gates or inverts it.

SignalHit rateResolved (n)Correct
Llm Synthesis12% 2091253
Online Erosion Fade39% 5120
Feature Valuation To Growth Credibility Mismatch39% 3313
Pe Sector Reversion Short41% 594245
Online Comparison Fade43% 9139
Momentum Continuation43% 392170
Feature Cash Ratio Total Assets46% 4320
Momentum Continuation47% 28891361
Online Performance Fade48% 324155

Why not a single headline number? A pooled hit-rate blends proven edges with anti-predictive and tiny-sample signals — so the honest KPI is the validated tier, not the pool. Verdicts are market-relative, horizon-pinned, and traceable to reconciled multi-source prices. See methodology.

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