Internet Assertion Accuracy

We extract testable claims from public internet discussion, then grade each one against real, multi-source market data on its stated horizon. Categories differ sharply — some hold up, many don't.

Accuracy by category

Category	Accuracy	Graded (n)	Correct
Performance	33%	614	204
Comparison	49%	366	178
Prediction	49%	278	135
Erosion	22%	121	27
Yield	70%	113	79
Growth	21%	48	10
Tax	42%	38	16

Recent graded assertions

Anonymized and source-agnostic. Each row: the claim, the direction it implied, and whether it held up against the actual move.

Category	Ticker	The assertion	Direction	Verdict	What happened
Prediction	NVDA	NVDA would go to Mars right now, but I also won't be surprised if it falls 90% at some point within the next 3-4 years	bearish	✓ held up	-6.316349969290395
Prediction	NVDA	En 2 años se proyecta que genere 341b en FCF	bullish	✗ wrong	-7.427979008935543
Prediction	NVDA	Vas a ganar 100% en 10 años, quizá	bullish	✗ wrong	-4.9049305304776265
Prediction	NVDA	la calculadora DCF muestra que la acción valdrá $1500 en 5 años	bullish	✗ wrong	-4.9049305304776265
Prediction	NVDA	el mercado ya está pagando por los próximos 5-10 años	bearish	✓ held up	-2.4995001838697872
Performance	SPY, VOO	The performance over the last 10 years is near identical	neutral	✓ held up	{'a': 303.32501986898916, 'b': 305.68901442179657}
Yield	JEPI	JEPI takes you out of most of that game, in return for 8% payments	bullish	✓ held up	7.977251415116228
Erosion	SCHD, VOO, QQQ	with that portfolio you have to sell off to use the money in retirement, and in an extended market downturn that would hurt you quite a bit over the long run	bearish	✗ wrong	False
Performance	JEPI	JEPI minimized downdrafts by 50%	bullish	✗ wrong	93.86430989893556
Performance	AMD, INTC	AMD is taking share from Intel	bullish	✓ held up	{'a': 309.3354757575317, 'b': 94.38992588186426}
Performance	SCHG, VUG	SCHG has had slightly better risk-adjusted performance	bullish	✗ wrong	{'a': -1.4819205690574984, 'b': 0.0}
Comparison	SCHG, VUG	SCHG has an expense ratio that is slightly lower	bullish	✗ wrong	{'a': -1.4819205690574984, 'b': 0.0}
Performance	AMD, NVDA	AMD GPU division losing share to NVDA	bearish	✗ wrong	{'a': 309.3354757575317, 'b': 42.004618265423055}
Comparison	AMD, NVDA	AMD GPU products lack competitive features compared to NVDA	bearish	✗ wrong	{'a': 309.3354757575317, 'b': 42.004618265423055}
Comparison	SPMO, FDMO	SPMO has a 0.45% higher expense ratio but 20% higher CAGR than FDMO	bullish	✓ held up	{'a': 25.202640594969505, 'b': -1.6135972461273667}
Comparison	SPMO, FDMO	SPMO has more timing risk and goes with more volatility than FDMO	bearish	✗ wrong	{'a': 25.202640594969505, 'b': -1.6135972461273667}
Prediction	GME	GME is very close to becoming profitable	bullish	✗ wrong	-4.088050314465409
Performance	DGRW	DGRW pays out dividends monthly	neutral	✗ wrong	3.277807630306284
Growth	SCHD	In January 2015 each share was paying $3.24 per year and 5 years later in January 2020 it was paying $5.30 per year. This is about a 12.7% dividend increase each year	bullish	✗ wrong	-8.582124953586279
Performance	FNGU	las 10 están bien de valor y ganando	bullish	✗ wrong	-14.117647058823524
Performance	FNGO, FNGU	rendimiento decepcionante de FNGO/FNGU en el cuarto trimestre de 2025	bearish	✗ wrong	{'a': -3.881053761713143, 'b': -14.117647058823524}
Performance	GME	Around 55 million shares are sold short on GME	bearish	✓ held up	-4.088050314465409
Prediction	PLTR	deploying 25% of cash into a huge bubble	bearish	✓ held up	-1.750927679369748
Erosion	JEPI	its distributions have been steadily declining over the last 1 1/2 years	bearish	✗ wrong	False
Comparison	JEPI, SCHD	JEPI is meant to be an income stream, whereas SCHD is meant to be dividend	bullish	✓ held up	{'a': 0.008843621896915748, 'b': -0.27407632106931146}
Performance	SGOV	Something with this short a duration has really no price risk	bullish	✓ held up	0.11954572624029146
Performance	NVDA	data center compute revenue beating was a result of higher shipments of NVDA Hopper GPU used for training and inferencing	bullish	✗ wrong	0.0
Comparison	QQQM, QQQ	QQQM has an expense ratio of 0.15%, while QQQ has an expense ratio of 0.20%	bullish	✓ held up	{'a': 0.0, 'b': -1.6440476988213395}
Comparison	QQQM, QQQ	The only significant difference between QQQM and QQQ is the lower expense ratio for QQQM	bullish	✓ held up	{'a': 0.0, 'b': -1.6440476988213395}
Comparison	DGRO, VIG	DGRO is roughly compared to VIG. Less growth but a higher yield.	bearish	✗ wrong	{'a': 0.0, 'b': 0.0}
Yield	MSTY	ETFs MSTY de YieldMax pagan casi el 100% en dividendos al año	bullish	✗ wrong	182.95753270352665
Performance	VTI	VTI es de USA y ha tenido más rendimiento en los últimos 10-15 años	bullish	✗ wrong	-0.8178287183904832
Comparison	VTI, VT	VTI ha tenido más rendimiento que VT en los últimos 10-15 años	bullish	✗ wrong	{'a': -1.1075896010425557, 'b': -1.06968887701276}
Performance	VTI, VOO, VXUS	both US and international markets go back and forth between which one has better returns every 10 or so years	neutral	✗ wrong	{'a': 0.8171828061597681, 'b': 0.055201729447782365}
Performance	SCHG	SCHG: +21% (last 1 year)	neutral	✗ wrong	18.380377495310725
Comparison	JEPI, SCHD	If you're retiring soon 0-5 years, you can do a 60/40 split with more in JEPI	bullish	✓ held up	{'a': 2.882007780190918, 'b': 1.2302242332153097}
Performance	SCHG	SCHG va bastante abajo este año en comparación con esos fondos	bearish	✗ wrong	18.380377495310725
Performance	VYM, VIG, SCHD	VYM held out well last 2 years due to its less exposure to the banking / financial sectors compared to VIG, SCHD, DGRO	bullish	✗ wrong	{'a': 2.22972523409194, 'b': 2.5168967386984655}
Performance	SCHD, QQQ, VOO	SCHD has less to reinvest and have less total at the end of the 10 year period compared to QQQ and VOO	bearish	✗ wrong	{'a': 1.9826267708914342, 'b': 0.38391659780538145}
Comparison	SCHG, VOO	SCHG tuvo un rendimiento anualizado de 14% en 5 años vs VOO con 13% en 5 años	bullish	✓ held up	{'a': 88.75292384274096, 'b': 85.46005164924098}
Performance	SCHG	SCHG tuvo un rendimiento anualizado de 14% en 5 años	bullish	✗ wrong	88.75292384274096
Performance	VOO	VOO tuvo un rendimiento anualizado de 13% en 5 años	neutral	✗ wrong	85.46005164924098
Comparison	JEPI, SCHD	If your trying to create more income to spend in 5 years or as income defense strategy then put more into JEPI	bullish	✓ held up	{'a': 3.40086242978835, 'b': 1.9510498909033422}
Prediction	SCHD	in 10 years SCHD will have the same dividends as any decent (8-10%) current high yield fund	bullish	✓ held up	221.20533330432917
Prediction	VT	you run the risk of being down significantly in 5 years if there is a protracted downturn	bearish	✓ held up	-1.505011552325557
Comparison	SPY, VOO	SPY has much more liquidity than others	bullish	✓ held up	{'a': 27.176689503510104, 'b': 27.11929959903674}
Performance	SCHD	SCHD keeps swinging between high 60s and high 70s but can't seem to stay above 80	bearish	✗ wrong	28.118025117369527
Erosion	QYLD	QYLD NAV erosion concerns are more than valid	bearish	✗ wrong	False
Performance	VTI, VXUS, VT	80/20 VTI/VXUS beat VT from 1985 to present	bullish	✗ wrong	{'a': 0.0, 'b': 0.0}
Comparison	SPY, VOO	the higher expense ratio makes it a poorer choice for long term investors	bearish	✗ wrong	{'a': 27.176689503510104, 'b': 27.11929959903674}

Show the work

Method: claims are extracted by an LLM, then verified horizon-pinned and market-relative against reconciled multi-source prices. Every number on this site traces to its sources — see methodology.

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