Internet Assertion Accuracy
We extract testable claims from public internet discussion, then grade each one against real, multi-source market data on its stated horizon. Categories differ sharply — some hold up, many don't.
Accuracy by category
| Category | Accuracy | Graded (n) | Correct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Performance | 29% | 497 | 146 |
| Comparison | 38% | 264 | 99 |
| Prediction | 57% | 182 | 104 |
| Erosion | 22% | 103 | 23 |
| Yield | 76% | 101 | 77 |
| Growth | 22% | 45 | 10 |
| Tax | 41% | 32 | 13 |
Recent graded assertions
Anonymized and source-agnostic. Each row: the claim, the direction it implied, and whether it held up against the actual move.
| Category | Ticker | The assertion | Direction | Verdict | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erosion | TTD | SBC se está comiendo el 100% del [earnings/value] | bearish | ✓ held up | True |
| Prediction | TSLA | ARK's Price Target for Tesla in 2025 is $3,000 Per Share | bullish | ✓ held up | 18.120769655094833 |
| Prediction | TSLA | ARK predicts an 85% chance of Tesla launching robotaxis by 2026 | bullish | ✓ held up | 18.120769655094833 |
| Prediction | TSLA | My model predicts 7.1 million EVs in 2026 | bullish | ✓ held up | 18.120769655094833 |
| Prediction | TSLA | $10k around 2027 is likely to happen | bullish | ✓ held up | 18.120769655094833 |
| Prediction | TSLA | ARK's Expected Value For Tesla In 2026: $4,600 per Share | bullish | ✓ held up | 18.120769655094833 |
| Comparison | IAU, GLD | 15% Oro (como sea: realmente físico, ETFs de IAU/Gld, alquiler) | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': -20.810559967000096, 'b': 28.33497536945812} |
| Comparison | VIG, VTI, VOO | VIG has basically the same characteristics as VOO, and is more expensive than VTI due to weights in companies like apple and Microsoft | bearish | ✓ held up | {'a': 6.115140525838626, 'b': 23.00454948625758} |
| Comparison | AMD, NVDA | AMD está cotizando a ~155 veces sus ganancias después de una caída enorme, mientras que NVIDIA cotiza a 31x | bearish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 294.2410103691049, 'b': 48.87762374301691} |
| Comparison | AMD, NVDA, ADBE | AMD y NVDA básicamente les robaron participación de mercado | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 0.0, 'b': 0.0} |
| Comparison | QQQM, QQQ | QQQM es QQQ con un ratio de gastos más bajo | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 14.848520663436156, 'b': 35.49364389377326} |
| Comparison | NVDA, AMD | Nvidia is now chasing AMD, attempting to launch its own CPUs | bearish | ✓ held up | {'a': 48.87762374301691, 'b': 294.2410103691049} |
| Performance | AMD | AMD's price has massively decoupled from expectations | bearish | ✗ wrong | 294.2410103691049 |
| Performance | VOO | when I recommend ETFs, it is mainly because of the past performance of that ETF | neutral | ✗ wrong | 23.48621713973409 |
| Prediction | AMD, INTC | analysts are optimistic about continued share gains in server CPUs against Intel | bullish | ✓ held up | 294.2410103691049 |
| Prediction | AMD, NVDA | AMD to emerge as the clear #2 player in data center GPUs behind Nvidia | bullish | ✓ held up | 294.2410103691049 |
| Comparison | AMD, NVDA | AMD has more explosive revenue and profit growth | bullish | ✓ held up | {'a': 294.2410103691049, 'b': 48.87762374301691} |
| Comparison | AMD, NVDA | NVDA has significantly more cash assets and goodwill | bearish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 294.2410103691049, 'b': 48.87762374301691} |
| Prediction | SCHD, JEPI | SCHD has a better capital appreciation chance long-term | bullish | ✓ held up | 28.59243128140454 |
| Performance | SCHD, SPY | SCHD está inusualmente un 10% por arriba del S&P500 en lo que va del año | bullish | ✓ held up | {'a': 28.59243128140454, 'b': 25.5941808339677} |
| Comparison | JEPQ, QQQI | yo consideraría QQQI si es una cuenta imponible | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 22.664376138741616, 'b': 25.505188692243706} |
| Comparison | SCHD, SCHG | SCHD is better suited for people who are already close to retirement and want dividend income, not for young people | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 0.0, 'b': 0.0} |
| Comparison | SCHG, SCHD | SCHG is more risky than SCHD | bearish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 0.0, 'b': 0.0} |
| Comparison | SCHD, JEPI | If you're still far from retirement, you can flip it around and put 60 percent into SCHD and then 40 into JEPI | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 0.0, 'b': 0.0} |
| Performance | SCHD, JEPI | your underlying investment value in SCHD will outpace that of JEPI, especially given the difference in expense ratios | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 0.0, 'b': 0.0} |
| Comparison | VUG, VOOG | VUG is a little more diversified than VOOG | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 8.908781719347814, 'b': 11.470892180502931} |
| Comparison | VOO, VUG | If you want to lean more towards growth from a balanced VOO, it is logical to add VUG on top of VOO | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 0.0, 'b': 0.0} |
| Comparison | VOO, VUG, QQQ | Many people add VUG (or QQQ) on top of VOO for growth purposes | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 0.0, 'b': 0.0} |
| Erosion | VUG | Be careful with historical returns as VUG has switched its benchmark a handful of times over the years | bearish | ✗ wrong | False |
| Performance | AMD | 300% de ganancias en mi inversión en AMD | bullish | ✗ wrong | 294.2410103691049 |
| Comparison | NVDA, AMD | Ni siquiera he ganado la mitad de beneficios con Nvidia de los que he sacado con AMD | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 48.87762374301691, 'b': 294.2410103691049} |
| Performance | SCHD | SCHD had decent growth of 1-2% per month | bullish | ✓ held up | 0.0 |
| Comparison | VTI, VXUS | VTI has more technology exposure than VXUS | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 0.0, 'b': 0.0} |
| Comparison | JAAA, CLOZ, DIVO | JAAA, CLOZ, DIVO, JEPI, SCHD have lower beta than the S&P 500 | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': -0.23673308344842092, 'b': 0.19047619047619319} |
| Comparison | QQQM, QQQ | QQQM follows the same Nasdaq 100 index but costs 15 basis points | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 14.848520663436156, 'b': 35.49364389377326} |
| Performance | VOO | VOO net return is 9.97% after expenses | bullish | ✗ wrong | 23.48621713973409 |
| Performance | JEPI, SCHD | Los fondos centrados en ingresos como JEPI y SCHD muestran la menor volatilidad, con caídas de solo -0,47 % y -0,89 % respectivamente | bullish | ✓ held up | {'a': 1.3564839710273437, 'b': 0.7439606043209194} |
| Prediction | TSLA | JP Morgan dijo que TSLA se iba a estrellar hasta los 185 el mes pasado | bearish | ✓ held up | -11.522669732007992 |
| Prediction | TSLA | Este mes le subieron su precio objetivo y dijeron que están optimistas con TSLA | bullish | ✓ held up | 18.120769655094833 |
| Performance | QQQM, SCHG | Both ETFs have shown similar long-term performance | neutral | ✗ wrong | {'a': 14.848520663436156, 'b': 7.467948717948736} |
| Comparison | SCHG, QQQM | SCHG offers lower expense ratio | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 7.467948717948736, 'b': 14.848520663436156} |
| Comparison | QQQ, QQQM | QQQM has a lower expense ratio than QQQ | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 0.0, 'b': 0.0} |
| Performance | AVUV | If you believe the size and value premium is worth it, the fees justify themselves | bullish | ✗ wrong | 0.0 |
| Performance | NVDA | Los índices son claramente los que ganan | bullish | ✓ held up | 48.87762374301691 |
| Performance | VOO, VTI | VOO/VTI han estado superando a mis acciones en lo que va del año | bullish | ✓ held up | {'a': 23.48621713973409, 'b': 23.00454948625758} |
| Comparison | SCHD, VOO | SCHD is the one that is truly going in a different direction | bullish | ✓ held up | {'a': 28.59243128140454, 'b': 23.48621713973409} |
| Comparison | VOO, SPY | VOO has a cheaper MER option for buy and hold | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 23.48621713973409, 'b': 25.5941808339677} |
| Comparison | VOO, SPY | VOO has a lower expense ratio than SPY | bullish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 23.48621713973409, 'b': 25.5941808339677} |
| Comparison | SPY, VOO | If you have $10,000 invested, the expense ratio difference between SPY and VOO is $6 | bearish | ✗ wrong | {'a': 25.5941808339677, 'b': 23.48621713973409} |
| Comparison | MSFT, META, TSLA | msft, meta y tsla parece que corrigieron mucho más en comparación con aapl, NVDA y Googl | bearish | ✗ wrong | {'a': -12.050166708201694, 'b': -14.229953777567191} |
Show the work
Method: claims are extracted by an LLM, then verified horizon-pinned and market-relative against reconciled multi-source prices. Every number on this site traces to its sources — see methodology.